KARACHI, Jan 29 (IPS) – Whether or not the late snow in Pakistan’s Gilgit-Baltistan area is an anomaly or a sign of the impacts of local weather change, which brings erratic and at instances devastating climate patterns, specialists within the area consider not sufficient is being invested within the improvement of capacities, methods, and infrastructure to enhance resilience. Alpine skier, 28-year-old Muhammad Karim, has spent the winter along with his eyes skyward, wishing and hoping for deep and ample snow. “My bread and butter depend upon the snow,” stated the Olympian, who can also be a ski coach, at Naltar Ski Resort, within the valley by the identical title nestled within the Gilgit-Baltistan’s Karakoram mountain vary.
Heading the ice-hockey and alpine snowboarding part run by the Ski Federation of Pakistan and with the nationwide snowboarding competitors looming simply weeks away (held between February 14 and 20 in Naltar), Karim had been getting sleepless nights because it had not snowed after a slight sprinkling of “half an inch” in November, and there have been possibilities the sporting occasion can be known as off.
However as predicted by the Meteorological Division, the snowfall started on January 28 and “will proceed for a number of days,” stated Karachi-based Dr. Sardar Sarfaraz, chief meteorologist on the Pakistan Meteorological Department.
However it’s not but excellent news.
“It’s too mild,” stated Karim, speaking to IPS over the telephone from Naltar. “We’re nonetheless unsure concerning the occasion,” he added.
With out extended chilly winter days to comply with the snowfall, the snow will soften away, stated Sarfaraz, persevering with: “Nor will it compensate for the virtually 80–90 p.c much less precipitation the nation confronted in December and January.”
“It’s too little, too late,” stated Sher Mohammad, a cryosphere knowledgeable on the Nepal-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), over an e-mail trade.
This yr has been fairly uncommon. It has been an virtually snowless winter within the northern area of the Himalayan-Hindukush-Karakoram ranges.
“We normally expertise the primary snowfall by the top of October in some components of G-B, and this continues nicely into March,” stated Shehzad Shigri, director of the Gilgit-Baltistan Environmental Protection Agency, talking to IPS from Gilgit metropolis.
“Winter has been milder,” he stated, as a result of El Niño impact. The temperatures recorded by the seven climate stations, nonetheless, present “a rise by 0.5 diploma Centigrade within the area, on common, since 1983, and a lower of precipitation (rain and snow) by 8.4 mm,” stated Shigri.
Arun Bhakta Shrestha, senior local weather knowledgeable at ICIMOD, underscoring the impression of world warming, defined the “uncommon absence of snowfall within the Himalayas, Hindu Kush, and Karakoram this winter, attributing it to “hotter temperatures and fewer chilly days and nights.”
“Total, in Pakistan, nights are getting hotter by 0.5°C, which implies we’re experiencing, on common, eight to 10 fewer chilly days,” corroborated Sarfaraz.
“This climate anomaly disrupts regular local weather patterns, influenced by excessive La Niña-El Niño circumstances and alterations to the Western Disturbance . These shifts, emblematic of the local weather disaster, pose a big risk to mountain communities and water safety within the HinduKush-Himalayan area,” warned Shrestha.
However Sarfaraz is adamant El Niño is to not blame for lower than common rain.
“Much less precipitation in winter is not resulting from El Niño, because it impacts the summer season and the monsoon rains,” he insisted, saying rains in winter, in Pakistan, are identified to have a linkage with the North Atlantic Oscillation, which, “if optimistic, brings a superb quantity of rain, and when destructive, brings much less.”
It’s also untimely to attribute a one-off snowless winter to ‘local weather change,’ as it isn’t confirmed scientifically, he added.
Final yr, 2023, in line with local weather scientists, with common temperatures of 1.34–1.54°C, was the most popular yr since 1850–1900—the so-called pre-industrial period. Many scientists predict that 2024 may very well be hotter.
Whether or not anthropogenic or pure, a change within the fragile mountain ecosystem can have far-reaching penalties for the communities in comparison with terrestrial ones, Shigri stated.
If nights are sleepless, the times haven’t been any simpler for skier Karim. “I spend the day getting climate updates and rescheduling our plans. In between, he stated, he’s bombarded with telephone calls from anxious athletes from throughout Pakistan asking whether or not the occasion can be held in any respect.
As a backup, the inspiration had began making synthetic snow. “We had managed to cowl 20 p.c of the Wildboar slope, the place the competitors is to be held, however one other 30 p.c must be lined earlier than February 13,” stated the coach. Synthetic snow will not be solely a pricey enterprise; Karim stated it additionally requires a sure temperature, with out which the snow will soften. Having glided down pure snow since he was 4, he was not too enthused concerning the imitation.
“You can’t slide as easily as you possibly can on pure snow,” he defined.
However Karim will not be the one one whose life is dependent upon snow.
Like in Naltar, the naked slope within the ski resort of Malam Jabba, in KP’s Swat district, was being lined with synthetic snow to generate some financial exercise earlier than it began snowing on the eve of January 27.
“The season has been fairly lean,” admitted Afkaar Hussain, spokesperson of the Malam Jabba Ski Resort. From catering to as much as 3,500 prospects per day final yr, the quantity has come right down to as many as 500 per day, with most arriving over weekends this yr.
Hussain stated folks come from throughout Pakistan, generally even for the weekend or only a day journey if they’re shut by, to get pleasure from snowfall, do snowboarding, snowboarding, ziplining, or simply go as much as the lodge on the high of the slope on a chairlift to seize the luxurious snow-capped views.
“Final yr this place was buzzing; I didn’t know when the day began and ended; this yr I’ve been fairly free, however I hope this bout of snow will convey vacationers again to city, despite the fact that it’s a bit late and the vacation season is over within the plains,” he stated.
Kalam, within the Swat Valley, within the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, the place the primary snow falls by mid-November and continues nicely into March, with snow as much as eight toes, additionally acquired its share of snow on January 27.
“BBQ, limitless cups of tea, and having fun with reside music round a bonfire is a typical sight in Kalam within the winter season,” recalled 30-year-old Noorulhuda Shaheen, including that the flux of holiday makers was such that lodge rooms had been booked months prematurely—again within the day.
Seeing what a roaring enterprise this may very well be, he determined to open 4 luxurious tented huts (the place these with an adventurous streak do ‘glamping’) on the tenting web site of the well-known Mahodand Lake, about an hour and a half jeep-drive from Kalam, in 2022.
“I did nice when the spring began, however then in August, the floods dealt a dying blow to tourism. Final yr there was a superb 4 toes of snow, however as a result of county’s financial state of affairs, enterprise didn’t decide up. This winter season (ranging from November 2023–March 2024), I hoped I’d do nicely,” stated Shaheen.
However until final week, with Kalam giving a deadpan look, it appeared extremely unlikely folks would go as much as Mahodand Lake for glamping. Nevertheless, he’s hopeful concerning the late arrival of snow.
He hopes that when the snow stops falling and the solar comes out, folks will flock to the valley.
“My huts are nicely outfitted to maintain vacationers heat; it’s simply magical on the market proper now,” he stated after visiting the place after the snowfall.
However it isn’t only a lack of vacationers that’s worrisome.
The mountain folks depend upon pure sources for his or her livelihoods and apply small-scale agriculture. The impression of an virtually snowless winter will be devastating for his folks, stated Shaheen. “It should imply our springs will dry up when your entire inhabitants is pastoral and depending on subsistence farming and rearing livestock.”
A current blog on ICIMOD’s web site explains it greatest: “Snow cowl normally acts as an insulating blanket, shielding dormant crops, permitting root development, stopping frost penetration, and defending soil from erosion. Diminished snowfall and erratic rains throughout the Himalayan area have the potential to trigger hostile ecological impacts within the area, together with on water and agroforestry.”
But when temperatures rise, which can nicely occur, as identified by Shigri, this late snowfall can be much more problematic. “It should result in flash flooding and GLOFs (glacial lake outburst flooding) sweeping away houses, orchards, and livestock,” he stated.
If this turns into the norm, repeated absences of snowfall could speed up the receding of glaciers, stated Islamabad-based local weather change and sustainable improvement knowledgeable Ali Tauqeer Sheikh. “It’s additionally doable that as an alternative of much less water downstream, there may very well be a lot bigger portions if there are warmth waves within the higher Indus basin. This will trigger extra early (than historic patterns) and irregular water flows,” he stated.
Whereas specialists could dither over a sure-shot rationalization for the present no-show/little or no snow episode, Islamabad-based local weather knowledgeable Imran Khalid, working with WWF-Pakistan, stated these episodes with “both too little or an excessive amount of precipitation” will proceed to be skilled resulting from world warming.
“Due to this fact, plans and insurance policies have to be in place to deal with such excessive situations. These ought to entail enhancing the capability of native communities to plan in addition to using devices akin to insurance coverage mechanisms for an efficient response,” he stated.
“We must always brace for the impacts,” agreed Vaqar Zakaria, the top of Hagler Bailly Pakistan, an environmental consultancy agency primarily based in Islamabad, however rued: “We aren’t investing within the improvement of capacities, methods, and infrastructure to enhance resilience; much less water for crops, pastures, and micro- and even bigger hydropower vegetation is what I’d fear about most.”
And, added Sheikh, “As a substitute of elevating alarm bells, we have to examine the traits extra carefully and over longer intervals of time somewhat than one or two seasons solely.”.
Nonetheless, there are others who say Pakistan, not a serious emitter however within the eye of a local weather storm, may make a robust case for accessing the Loss and Damage Fund.
“The mechanisms for disbursement of funds (what little is accessible) are nonetheless of their infancy and, as such, can’t be relied upon to deal with the rapid wants of the communities,” stated Khalid.
“I doubt our establishments would be capable to submit a superb proposal in time,” stated Zakaria.
Due to this fact, stated Khalid, with local weather aberration episodes more likely to recur, Pakistan should develop efficient mechanisms for local weather adaptation on the native degree. “Having an efficient adaptation scheme can serve to discourage rapid loss and harm,” he identified.
Zakaria, nonetheless, remained skeptical. For these on the helm, he stated, “the poor and weak, hit the toughest by local weather change, don’t determine within the useful resource allocation course of.”
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